Odaily星球日报讯 据 CME“美联储观察”：美联储明年 1 月维持利率不变的概率为 91.4%，降息 25 个基点的概率为 8.6%。到明年 3 月维持当前利率不变的概率为 52.1%，累计降息 25 个基点的概率为 44.2%，累计降息 50 个基点的概率为 3.7%。（金十）

美联储明年1月维持利率不变的概率为91.4%

Odaily Odaily reported that according to CME&#39;s &quot;Fed Watch&quot;: the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in January next year is 91.4%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 8.6%. The probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged by March next year is 52.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 44.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 3.7%. (Jinshi)

The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in January next year is 91.4%.

The US dollar rose as the market continued to bet on the Federal Reserve taking a cautious rate cut path. According to data from the London Stock Exchange Group, the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by a cumulative 38 basis points by December 2025.

The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points the previous week, but hinted that the pace of future rate cuts would slow. In a report, Deutsche Bank analysts said the Federal Reserve is likely to skip a rate cut in January next year, which could turn into a prolonged pause in policy easing by 2025. (<金十>)

Analyst: The Fed is likely to skip rate cuts in January next year

Odaily reports that the median forecast of the Federal Reserve for interest rates in 2025 is only a 50-basis-point rate cut, but the Business Council of Canada (BCA) expects more rate cuts. BCA analysts said in a report that inflation is likely to be lower than the Federal Reserve's 2025 forecast, and the unemployment rate may be higher than the Federal Reserve's 2025 forecast. They said: "Therefore, more than 50 basis points of easing will be needed." The Federal Reserve forecasts the unemployment rate to be 4.3% by the end of 2025, "which requires a significant improvement in the momentum of the labor market, and we believe this trend reversal is unlikely to occur." (Gold Ten)

Canadian Association for Business Economics: Fed needs to cut rates by more than 50 basis points next year

Although the trade and tax policies of President-elect Trump pose an imminent threat to the bond market, Wall Street is still inspired by the Federal Reserve and predicts that the yield on short-term U.S. Treasuries will decline by 2025.

The forecasts of the strategists are largely consistent, believing that the yield on the 2-year Treasury bond, which is more sensitive to the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, will decline. They believe that within 12 months from now, the yield will decline by at least 50 basis points from the current level.

"While investors may be short-sighted in focusing on the pace and magnitude of rate cuts next year, investors should step back and recognize that the Federal Reserve will still be in...