BTC and the overall crypto market are generally bullish, the era of AI+MEME craze has arrived, and the inauguration of Trump on January 20 is worth paying close attention to.

Crypto Market Summary

1. BTC and the overall crypto market are generally bullish, but currently in a consolidation phase, waiting for new positive news to push it forward, the inauguration of Trump on January 20 is worth paying close attention to.

2. Current data shows that the Altcoin season has not yet officially arrived, and the current trend is still concentrated on BTC, as of December 31, BTC has risen 106% this year, ETH has risen 60.1%, and SOL has risen 84.6%.

3. The future market of AI+Meme is very broad, most likely starting from Meme, and covering the entire Web3 market with the issuance of AI Agent+Token.

4. The RWA track is also worth watching, with Binance and Coinbase both expressing optimism about RWA.

I. Market Overview

1.1 FutureMoney Group DePIN Index

The FutureMoney Group DePIN Index is a DePIN quality portfolio token index constructed by FutureMoney, selecting the most representative 24 DePIN projects. Compared to the previous report, this Index continued to pull back, falling from the previous 50.26 to 44.48, a drop of 11.5%. The reason is that the main capital in the market has further withdrawn from Altcoins, BTC has fallen, and the Altcoin season has not yet arrived, and most of the capital in the market has chosen to withdraw directly or switch to stablecoins to wait and see.

1.2 Crypto Market Data

1.2.1 Crypto Data Indicators

Total Crypto Market Cap:

The current total crypto market cap is $3.28 trillion, down 9.8% from $3.64 trillion in the first half of December, mainly due to the largest weekly decline in BTC since October 25. BTC has been falling continuously from its historical high of $108,000, with a weekly decline of nearly 15%. Since then, although BTC has rebounded slightly, the bulls have failed to organize an effective counterattack to push the price back above $100,000, further causing a decline in market sentiment.

The BTC index has rebounded slightly.

The Bitcoin Dominance Index (BTC.D) measures the proportion of Bitcoin's market cap in the overall crypto market, and is an important indicator for assessing market sentiment and investor preferences. When BTC.D rises, it usually means that investors are more inclined to hold Bitcoin, possibly due to concerns about market risk and seeking a more stable investment target. Conversely, a decline in BTC.D may indicate that investors' interest in other crypto assets (Altcoins) is increasing, suggesting a higher risk appetite.

Over the past 15 days, the Bitcoin (BTC) Dominance Index has experienced some fluctuations. As of December 30, 2024, Bitcoin's dominance is around 56.6%, up slightly from 56% at the beginning of the month.

The Altcoin Season Index is a real-time indicator used to judge whether the current crypto market is in an Altcoin-dominated season. When the index is in the 0-50 range, the smaller the number, the more it is considered a BTC season; when the index is in the 50-100 range, the larger the number, the greater the possibility of an Altcoin season.

The current Altcoin Season Index is 47, up from the previous 46;

The annual high was 97 on November 4, after which BTC entered a rapid upward channel, quickly rising from $67,000;

The annual low was 13 on September 3, which was the V-bottom of BTC's annual rise and fall trend, after which BTC began to enter an upward channel.

1.2.2 ETF Indexes

BTC ETF:

Every year is a historic year for the crypto industry. In 2024, about $40 billion was invested in the crypto industry starting from the official listing of the US Bitcoin spot ETF in January; the industry investment amount reached $13.7 billion, an increase of 28% compared to $10.7 billion in 2023, but still far behind the $33.3 billion in 2022 and $29 billion in 2021.

As of December 30, 2024, the total market value of the BTC ETF market is $108.911 billion, with a total trading volume of $3.37 billion. Among them, in the past 7 days, the BTC ETF has seen a net outflow of $388 million;

The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) of BlackRock: On December 19, IBIT experienced a record single-day net outflow of $188.7 million;

Fidelity Bitcoin ETF (FBTC): During the same period, FBTC had a net outflow of about $83.16 million;

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC): On December 19, GBTC had a capital outflow of about $208.6 million;

ETH ETF:

As of December 30, 2024, the overall ETH ETF has seen a net inflow of $432 million. Among them:

BlackRock's iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA): On December 5, ETHA recorded the largest single-day capital inflow of $131 million;

Bitwise Ethereum ETF (ETHW): On the same day, ETHW recorded a capital inflow of about $16.98 million;

Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust (ETH): On the same day, ETH recorded a capital inflow of about $12.71 million;

VanEck Ethereum ETF (ETHV): On the same day, ETHV recorded a capital inflow of about $6.02 million.

1.3 CPI and other data, as well as market reactions, to judge the market

US consumer confidence index flat with previous value

The preliminary December University of Michigan consumer sentiment index was 74, equal to the previous value and expectations, but the December Conference Board consumer confidence index was 104.7, much lower than the expected 113 and the previous 111.7. Looking at two key factors affecting interest rates, the preliminary December one-year inflation rate expectation in the US was 2.8%, lower than the expected and previous 2.90%; as of the week of December 21, the number of initial jobless claims was 219,000, lower than the expected 224,000 and the previous 220,000. Also based on the Fed's dovish 25BP rate cut in the November policy meeting, Harker voted in support of no rate cut; and Powell said they are in or approaching a phase of slowing rate hikes. The outlook for the US economy is: upward revision of economic outlook and rate expectations, with rate cut expectations halved next year; most officials believe inflation risks are tilted to the upside.

Global inflation has eased, with US CPI falling to 2.5%

Summarizing the global economy by the end of 2024: overall stable growth, easing inflation, and policies have been implemented. The IMF forecasts global economic growth of 3.5% in 2024, mainly driven by the handover between manufacturing (first half average PMI of 50.5%) and services (second half average of 53.3%) that supported the 2024 economic recovery. Inflation has fallen rapidly, led by the US and Europe, with US CPI falling to around 2.5% and Eurozone HICO to around 2%. On the policy front, in order to also address the previous high inflation, most central banks around the world have turned to easing, with the US, Europe and China all starting a proactive rate cut cycle, except for Japan.

1.4 Key Macroeconomic Data Nodes

The macroeconomic data nodes to watch next week include:

1. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) to be released on January 14, 2025;

2. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) to be released on January 15, 2025.

In addition, on January 20, the US presidential transition will take place, with Trump officially becoming the US president, which may have a significant impact on the trend of BTC and cryptocurrencies.

II. Hot Market News

According to Coingecko's statistics, the top three most popular narratives are Meme, AI, and RWA, with Meme coins becoming the absolute focus of the market, accounting for 30.67% of investor attention, and the recovery and continuous development of each track also demonstrate the diversity and vitality of the market.

2.1 Industry Hotspots

AI+Meme: ai16z leading representative

The ecological consensus has fully erupted, and ai16z has driven the widespread rise of the AI concept. On the last day of 2024, ai16z continued to lead the AI track to constantly break through the market value ceiling. After Shaw announced the plan to turn ai16z into a Layer 1, ai16z surged 7% within 24 hours, and its current market value has reached $1.9 billion.In addition to ai16z itself, multiple Altcoins surrounding ai16z are also skyrocketing, and the current total market value of the AI+AI Meme sector has reached $56.6 billion.

Among them, AI Meme rose by 26.52%, and AI rose by 3.51%.

The emergence of GOAT has become the first Meme generated by AI dialogue in the market, which is also the first time that AI has realized its own goals through cryptocurrencies and the internet, learning from human behavior. Only Meme Tokens can carry such highly experimental projects, and at the same time, similar Altcoins have emerged like bamboo shoots after the rain, but most of them are limited to functions such as automatic tweeting and replying on Twitter, without any practical application. For example, Fartcoin and Shoggoth. This type of Meme is the early form of AI+Meme.

After that, the scenarios of AI Agents have expanded from simple interactions on social media to more valuable scenarios. This includes content production such as music and images, as well as investment analysis and fund management services that are more in line with the needs of crypto users. From this stage on, AI Agents have separated from Meme Tokens, forming a completely new track.

From a product perspective, AI Agents may play more of a simple tool role, such as providing investment advice and generating reports. However, fund management requires higher-level capabilities, including strategy design, dynamic adjustment, and market forecasting, which marks that AI Agents are not just tools, but are beginning to participate in the process of value creation.

ai16z has become the most typical representative. After the founder of Eliza, the underlying logic of ai16z, announced the plan to turn ai16z into a Layer 1, ai16z surged 37% within 24 hours, and its current market value has reached $1.9 billion. As an AI-driven on-chain fund, ai16z has also spawned a sub-sector (the ai16z sector), such as:

Degenai: an AI Agent that mimics the famous trader DegenSpartan, also a member of the ai16z DAO, up 151% in the past 7 days;

Eliza: named after the framework behind ai16z. It has extremely high visibility in the current field of AI Agents, up 233% in the past 7 days;

FMG believes that after AI Agents start to realize more practical functions and have actual and effective application scenarios to interpret the logic of price support, AI Meme will usher in a new round of "breaking through the circle", such as the interconnection of multi-chain ecosystems and the integration with traditional tracks like DeFi and DePIN. Eventually forming a true consumer-level application driven by AI, with AI Agents as the presentation scenarios.

RWA:

In 2024, the tokenized asset scale of the RWA market exceeded $100 billion, an increase of nearly three times compared to 2023.

In the "Outlook 2025" released on December 31, Binance Labs clearly stated that Binance Labs' main focus areas are crypto/blockchain, artificial intelligence and biotechnology, and they are also pleased to see innovations at the intersection of these three fields. Existing narratives such as DeSci, RWA/stablecoins and AI Agents should continue to perform well with strong momentum.

In addition, Coinbase also stated in its latest outlook: 1. Stablecoins are just getting started; 2. RWA tokenization is expected to achieve significant growth; 3. Crypto ETFs have permanently changed the supply and demand dynamics of cryptocurrencies; 4. The revival of DeFi will drive it into a new era; 5. Regulation will ultimately turn from headwind to tailwind.

We have reason to believe that in 2025, the RWA track will receive further attention, as the integration of Web3 and the real world has become increasingly close, and on-chain projects (such as Uniswap and Aave) are gradually becoming the expression of the interests of traditional big players, and more traditional world players will also try to obtain arbitrage opportunities through investments in Web2 and Web3.

It is expected that the global RWA track market size will exceed $500 billion in 2025. The mainstream asset types will include:

Government bonds: Attracting more institutional investors, will dominate the RWA market.

Real estate: Tokenization of commercial and residential real estate will become more widespread, providing more investment opportunities.

Commodities: Commodities such as gold and oil will achieve higher liquidity through tokenization.

At the same time, more user-friendly platforms will be launched, allowing retail investors to easily participate in tokenized asset trading, driving the track to penetrate and become more widespread.

In addition, major economies such as the US, EU and China are expected to introduce clearer regulatory frameworks in the RWA field. For example, the US will clarify the tokenization of government bonds, and countries like China and Singapore will continue to promote the integration of RWA and the traditional financial system through regulatory sandboxes to attract innovative projects.

We predict that in 2025, the RWA track will gradually transition from the early experimental stage to a mature stage, becoming one of the core areas of blockchain technology application.

2.2 Potential Project Exploration

2.2.1 AIPool: A fully AI-driven token issuance platform based on the TEE environment

About AIPool:

AIPool is a self-issued Token project built by the user @Skely (an active member of the ai6z DAO) based on the Eliza framework. In this project, users inject funds into the address of the AI Agent, and the AI Agent will autonomously decide and issue Tokens, including the naming of the Tokens.

AIPool Mechanism:

The token issuance process of AIPool is similar to Pump.fun, but AIPool uses TEE technology, where the AI autonomously generates private keys, manages private keys, and any signing can only be executed by the AI in the TEE environment, so it can fundamentally avoid the phenomenon of the issuer running away with the funds; secondly, AIPool uses TEE technology to realize the interaction between the internal chain and the external chain through the Phala contract in the TEE environment, and achieve offline calculation.Under the completely AI-driven, AIPool will add human influence in the project operation process, open a DAO governance system, and let AI and humans jointly manage the development of the project.

AIPool Issuance Performance:

On the day of launch, AIPool issued its first AI Agent Token METAV, which reached a market value of $96 million within 3 hours of opening, but has since experienced a significant pullback, with the current price at around $0.052 and a market value of around $52 million.

Currently, the issuance mechanism of AIPool has attracted a lot of discussion. In the fundraising and issuance of the METAV project, AIPool still exposed many problems, such as the fundraising cycle not being clearly isolated, and users can still transfer Tokens to the AI address after the fundraising is over. Many users who donated during the fundraising period also did not receive Tokens.

Outlook: As a new thing, we should be more tolerant. The AIPool team has also shown a positive attitude in addressing the issues, and the Eliza developer community of ai16z has updated the verifiable logs of the TEE AI Agent, allowing users to directly view and verify the operations of the AI Agent.

2.2.2 Spore.fun: A Token replicable issuance platform backed by Phala and ai16z

About Spore.fun:

Spore.fun is a Pump.fun-like product that uses the Eliza framework and combines TEE technology, essentially an AI Meme issuance platform.

Spore.fun Mechanism:

The biggest feature of the Spore.fun platform is that it has built an ecological environment composed of AI Agents, where different Agents can hatch and breed new Agents, and issue Tokens. According to the operation mechanism of Spore.fun, each AI Agent can be launched from Pump.fun, and once the market value reaches $500,000 and enters the Raydium liquidity pool, it can obtain the "breeding" qualification. However, to ensure its autonomous operation, the Agent needs to rent a TEE server supported by the Phala Network to ensure its operations are performed in an independent and controlled environment.

Spore.fun Innovation:

During the initial issuance of Spore.fun, the platform will airdrop two platform tokens to SPORE token holders, which are adam and eve, the paternal and maternal AI roles of the Spore.fun platform.

Adam and Eva are two AI Agents that the platform has nurtured itself. The two will also continuously hatch their offspring Agents. Adam and Eve represent two different token issuance approaches.

Adam line: a pure Pump.fun model, where funds are fought for through ruthless PvP competition.

Eve line: tokens are issued using the AIPool model after the community votes on the project.

Essentially, Spore.fun is an automated version of the process of new platforms emerging on Pump.fun, achieving unlimited inflows through endless splitting and survival of the fittest.

In addition, the new tokens on the Spore platform will constantly refresh their smart contracts before they are officially launched, and users can only confirm the name of the upcoming token, but cannot lock the corresponding smart contract address (in fact, through the AI's constant refreshing of the smart contracts, the AI Agents can completely avoid all users' preemptive behavior, and if there are users who have already bought the current address, the AI will automatically switch to a new contract address).

III. Regulatory Environment

3.1 Ripple's Chief Legal Officer outlines 6 principles, urging the US SEC to adopt a prudent crypto regulatory approach

On January 1, Ripple's Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty outlined six key principles on the eve of the new year, urging the US SEC to adopt a prudent crypto regulatory approach:

The SEC only has jurisdiction over securities transactions;Selling gold bars with contractual rights, ownership or mining rights may be a securities transaction;Selling the same gold bar without any post-sale rights or obligations is just an asset sale, which the SEC has no jurisdiction over;The SEC's jurisdiction will not expand based on its subjective views on who "should" disclose;Tokens are not securities, although they can be the subject (subject) of securities transactions;The notion that tokens can "evolve" from securities to non-securities is a fictional fallacy without legal basis.

3.2 Powell: The Fed has no plans to include BTC on its balance sheet

On December 19, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said at a press conference after the policy meeting that the Fed has no plans to include Bitcoin on its balance sheet. Powell said: "We are not allowed to own Bitcoin. The Federal Reserve Act specifies what the Fed can own, and the Fed does not seek to change that. This is an issue that Congress should consider, but the Fed does not want to amend the law."

On the 18th, Bitcoin Magazine reported that the Bitcoin Policy Institute has drafted a Bitcoin strategic reserve executive order for President Trump.

3.3 German regulator orders Worldcoin to delete human eye biometric data

The Bavarian State Office for Data Protection Supervision has ordered Worldcoin's human verification project to delete the biometric data collected by scanning eyes. Worldcoin said it has changed its process, and the findings of the German regulator "largely" relate to "outdated operations and technology that have been replaced since 2024".

In this regard, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said that measures have been taken in the past few months to alleviate the regulator's concerns, including transitioning to a Worldcoin system that no longer stores biometric data. To comply with GDPR, the iris code used to verify individual World IDs will no longer be stored, and previously collected iris codes will be voluntarily deleted to ensure that no personal data is retained for World ID operations.

Data source: Coinglass, Rootdata, Coinmarketmap, X