Here is the English translation: The White House and the Federal Reserve have turned a blind eye to the stock market crash in the past week, and both sides seem unwilling to back down first in this "cowardly game." Although the expectation of a recession is most likely just a negotiation tactic of Trump's extreme pressure, the uncertainty of policy games has further fueled the market's risk-averse sentiment. However, so far, the continued decline of the US stock market is more like the active compression of the valuation bubble by the top-level, rather than a harbinger of a crisis spiral. The most typical example is that during the $5 trillion evaporation of the US stock market, the A-share, Hong Kong stock, European stock and gold markets have risen sharply, which is different from the collective collapse of the global market when the US dollar liquidity crisis broke out in the past (the circulation of the US dollar is the heart of global liquidity). Although the cryptocurrency market has been hit by liquidity backlash in the valuation contraction of the US stock market, the structural resilience of Bitcoin is still good, which is mainly reflected in three aspects: 1. According to the Bloomberg terminal data, since the global liquidity crisis in March 2020, in the extreme scenario where the Nasdaq has fallen by more than 15% in seven single months (calculated by 30 days), the magnitude of Bitcoin's adjustment this time has been significantly compressed (-21%). Compared with the historical extreme values of -53.6% in March 2020 and -37.2% in June 2022, the volatility has been compressed by 65.8% and 50.8% respectively. 2. Unlike the extremely pessimistic expectations generated by the historical rounds of major declines, this time the funding rate of Bitcoin perpetual contracts and the premium rate of Bitcoin quarterly contracts have remained stable, indicating that the willpower of the long-term investors has not been shaken in the decline. 3. This adjustment not only has a relatively gentle trend, but also has almost no extreme needle-like situation in the intraday, indicating that the decline is mainly due to the panic selling of small and medium-sized retail investors, and the whale investors are still holding on. Based on these analyses, the author tends to believe that this decline in Bitcoin is just a technical retracement after the consecutive ATHs, and the $76,000 area is likely to be the medium-term bottom. Although Bitcoin is unlikely to benefit from the liquidity spillover of the US stock market in the short term, under the dual stimulus of policy benefits and macroeconomic catalysts, Bitcoin still has the prospect of ushering in a new round of paradigm growth. First, as the US crypto regulation shifts from "suppression mode" to "strategic support", Bitcoin's position among global asset classes has been unprecedented. Especially after Trump announced the establishment of a Bitcoin strategic reserve, sovereign wealth funds, pension funds and other long-term capital have begun to increase their allocation to Bitcoin. According to the data disclosed in the SEC 13F filing in the fourth quarter of 2024, Mubadala, the sovereign wealth fund of Abu Dhabi, made its first purchase of $437 million worth of Bitcoin ETF, the Wisconsin State Pension Fund increased its Bitcoin ETF holdings from $164 million to $321 million, and the Norwegian Central Bank Investment Management Company significantly increased its holdings of MSTR and COIN in the fourth quarter, expanding its Bitcoin exposure to $370 million. Calculated based on the market capitalization ratio of gold to Bitcoin at 10:1, the theoretical allocation ratio of global sovereign wealth funds and pension funds to Bitcoin can reach 0.1%-0.2% (gold 1%-2%), which is $67 billion to $134 billion. Secondly, within the framework of the Mar-a-Lago agreement, the overvaluation of the US dollar has become the main obstacle to debt resolution and the revitalization of the manufacturing industry. The United States is highly likely to actively devalue the US dollar in the future to reconstruct the current world trade system and financial pattern. The end of the strong US dollar cycle will inevitably lead to capital flows to neutral currencies such as gold and Bitcoin. From the public data, during the period from 1985 to 1987 after the Plaza Accord was signed, the US dollar depreciated by 50% against the Japanese yen and 47% against the German mark, and the gold price rose from around $300 per ounce to around $500, an increase of about 66%, a process that led to the reallocation of trillions of dollars in assets. The current scale of US dollar assets is tens of thousands of times that of 1985, so the hedging demand brought by the depreciation of the US dollar will be much larger. From MSTR's aggressive Bitcoin investment strategy to the Trump administration's inclusion of Bitcoin in the national strategic reserve, the United States is constructing a "dollar reservoir" in the crypto asset field through multi-dimensional layout. The core logic of this strategy is: by controlling Bitcoin, the most liquid crypto asset globally, to hedge the systemic risk of the US dollar depreciation cycle, while reshaping the power structure of the international monetary system (diverting the US control over the relatively weaker gold). Therefore, until the goal is achieved, the layout of US capital in the Bitcoin field will continue to accelerate. During the Fed's balance sheet reduction cycle, government spending is the key driver of income growth in the private sector and households, and the fundamental support for US consumption and investment. If there is a lack of countercyclical adjustment of monetary policy by the Fed in the process of reducing government spending, not only will the debt reduction target be difficult to achieve, but economic growth may also face the risk of stalling. This makes the market widely concerned that the Fed will become the stumbling block of Trump's strategy. But in fact, one year after the Plaza Accord was signed (1986), the Fed cut interest rates 3 times in a row, and the CPI actually fell from 3.5% to 1.9%, the fundamental reason being that fiscal tightening had a more obvious suppression on inflation. Therefore, the author agrees with Trump and Bassant's view: interest rates will fall quickly!