The League of Legends S15 World Championship has concluded, with Faker once again standing on the highest podium, securing his sixth championship and continuing to write his legend. Meanwhile, in the crypto, with the rise of prediction markets, players are simultaneously enjoying esports events and participating through prediction markets.

Among the many crypto players participating in prediction markets, an ID called "fengdubiying" (meaning "always wins") has become a new legend. In the prediction of the T1 vs. KT final, he wagered approximately $1.58 million on T1 to win, ultimately reaping a profit of about $820,000.

Starting with the Swiss rounds of S15, "fengdubiying" began with a $30,000 position. By the end of the S15 finals, his total profit on Polymarket had exceeded $2.9 million. This incredible record has even impressed international observers.

How did he do it? What prompted him to become active on Polymarket? In his view, what problems does Polymarket and the entire prediction market sector currently face, and how should we envision the future? "fengdubiying" was interviewed by BlockBeats and shared his legendary journey and insights with us.

Betting on one's own knowledge

"I only bet on things I feel confident about; that's been my strategy since I entered the crypto."

His successful strategy involves trusting his own judgment and making large bets on things he believes have a high degree of certainty. During last year's Solana meme surge, he achieved a single-coin A8 trade on Moodeng.

This strategy sounds simple, but it requires a strong heart and confidence. Behind every glorious moment of victory, there are naturally moments of disappointment. As he wrote on X, his address on Hyperliquid peaked at $9 million in profit, not only avoiding the crash on October 11th but also earning $2.8 million through short positions. However, the subsequent liquidity collapse caused his subsequent trades to fail one after another, giving back all his profits.

But every cloud has a silver lining. His losses in the futures market led to profits from his bet on Polymarket that Bitcoin would fall below $105,000. Although it wasn't much, only turning $13,000 into $30,000, it marked the beginning of his legendary journey on Polymarket.

Previously, when Trump was elected President of the United States, he had already learned about Polymarket and prediction markets, but because he wasn't very interested in political predictions and felt unsure about them, he chose not to participate. To explore new avenues and for the potential airdrops, he initially chose cryptocurrency-related predictions.

Then, the opportunity arrived—the League of Legends S15 World Championship.

Decisiveness and self-confidence: Polymarket's League of Legends King

Faker is undoubtedly the king of League of Legends. And on Polymarket, fengdubiying was crowned king thanks to his strong mentality.

Throughout this legendary journey, only Chovy ever posed a threat to him. In the KT vs. Gen.G semifinals, he bet over $400,000 on Gen.G, but Chovy's performance left him speechless. When Gen.G fell behind 1-2, he reluctantly but decisively liquidated his bets on Gen.G and switched to betting on KT.

This move resulted in him losing only $20,000 on this trade.

When we asked him about his gaming rank, he replied humorously:

"Actually, I haven't played for a long time. I used to reach Diamond rank when I was in school, but I'm getting older and can't play anymore. People who understand the game aren't necessarily good at it."

Although he no longer wields a mouse and charges into Summoner's Rift like he did in his student days, he never misses the World Championship every year and always makes his own predictions about the results, with a good win rate.

When asked if he would engage in arbitrage by buying low and selling high based on player sentiment fluctuations caused by changes in the game's progress, he stated that he would not:

"Once you enter the knockout stage, the skill gap between teams narrows, and the situation changes rapidly. If a team is in poor form and already behind, it could easily be eliminated in one fell swoop. At this point, there's no room for arbitrage. Betting on Polymarkets is essentially the same as opening a contract position; there's no guaranteed win, you can only be on the side with the higher probability."

The difference between prediction markets and traditional entertainment

In Fengdubiying's view, prediction markets are fundamentally different from traditional entertainment:

"The difference between the two is huge. It's like Baccarat and Texas Hold'em. In Baccarat, you play against the dealer, while in Texas Hold'em, you play against each other. In the prediction market, every prediction is a battle between players, relying on your own knowledge and strategy. If you try to play against the dealer, you're destined to lose."

He believes that the prediction market is a variant of the trading market, with limit and market orders, and charges some fees like the contract market.

He also believes that the prediction market differs significantly from traditional betting in its range of topics. The prediction market covers a wide range of topics, including traditional sports events such as football, basketball, and e-sports, as well as many political and weather predictions.

Furthermore, prediction markets are built on top of contract code, offering unique on-chain security and convenience. Although both prediction markets and traditional entertainment appear to involve "betting on something," he believes that prediction markets represent a completely new field, and the two cannot be compared directly.

Current problems with prediction markets

Regarding liquidity, fengdubiying believes that there is still much room for improvement in the current prediction market.

"This year I switched to the Bitcoin futures market because other sectors couldn't accommodate the depth of my positions. If a sector or market doesn't have enough liquidity, then I'm essentially giving money away to others. Once players reach a certain capital size, they will clearly feel the limitations of various markets in terms of liquidity, and then they can only go to places with liquidity that can accommodate their capital size."

In his view, Polymarket's current situation is similar to when the meme market first emerged, with low liquidity. Apart from world-class sporting events and global political and economic topics, many other topics have very low liquidity. This means that whales don't have many prediction targets to choose from, because for whales, buying and selling thousands or tens of thousands of dollars is boring.

He himself experienced the problem of insufficient depth and difficulty in trading ranges during his betting on the S-series:

"If you place a large bet, it's difficult to buy low and sell high, and to set stop-loss and take-profit orders. A position of $200,000 to $300,000 is possible, but if it rises to $800,000 or even a million dollars, it's very difficult. When T1 was 1:2 behind, I looked at the order book. If I wanted to stop loss at that time, there were only about $100,000 in pending orders in the order book. Even if I sold all of them to stop loss, I would only get that much money back."

He believes there are many whales much larger than himself, and attracting them to the prediction market would require significantly improved liquidity. If the prediction market could introduce market makers like the contract market, increasing order book depth, it would become even more attractive to whales.

In addition, he believes that all prediction markets on the market still need improvement in terms of actual user experience.

Outlook for the forecasting market

Before discussing the future of prediction markets, we posed this question to fengdubiying: In the past, when hot topics emerged, many meme-based investment schemes would spring up, such as the meme coins surrounding candidates and various unexpected events during the US presidential election. As prediction markets develop further, will they and meme-based investment schemes become competitors?

His answer was decisive: No.

"In my opinion, the meme sector is over. The crypto keeps repeating similar things; they're essentially the same, just conceptual gimmicks. For retail investors, the expectation comes from encountering something new and immediately recognizing that there's no such gameplay before. This takes time, like the inscription era. UniSat slowly built up its infrastructure, and by the time the second wave really took off, the infrastructure was basically complete. From this perspective, meme coins are no longer novel after pump.fun. Everything that needed to be built has been built, and there's no one left to buy in. From whales to P-jungle investors, they all eventually withdrew because they couldn't make money. So, there's no competition between a declining sector and a rising sector."

Major events happen every moment in the real world. In his view, although sports and political/economic themes are currently popular on Polymarket, many more themes will surely become popular in the future.

"Everyone has their own area of ​​expertise. For example, I don't understand politics or football, but I know League of Legends. So, everyone can try to monetize their accumulated knowledge in a specific field. This is what makes prediction markets so attractive to outsiders, and what I think is really cool. Moreover, in real life, people really enjoy chatting about all sorts of things, which has even led to jokes like 'know-it-all.' The desire to prove oneself right makes prediction markets more appealing to outsiders than cryptocurrencies themselves."

He believes the prediction market has unlimited potential, and surpassing the peak user and capital numbers of Meme Coin in the future is not a problem. Furthermore, as more people enter the prediction market, new leaders will emerge, and different individuals will grow in their respective areas of expertise. Of course, there will also be more and more "scientists" using news for sentiment arbitrage or other sophisticated strategies.

"I believe that each stage has its own opportunities. The meme market was better over the past year or so, but it's over now. What we need to do is stop dwelling on past glories and let bygones be bygones. Whether it's P Xiaojiang or Whale, insiders or outsiders, everyone will have their own opportunities in the prediction market. Let's look forward to a new future."

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