The battle for non-farm payrolls! White House officials are giving heads-up: 50,000 new cases may be normal.

According to Mars Finance, on February 11th, due to a temporary shutdown of some government departments, the US January non-farm payroll report, originally scheduled for release last Friday, was postponed to this Wednesday. Previously, several weak "secondary" employment data points had triggered market concerns about a slowdown in employment. Data showed that January's ADP employment increase was sluggish, Challenger companies saw a significant increase in layoffs; the four-week moving average of initial jobless claims rose at the end of January; and JOLTs job openings in December fell to a near five-year low. However, the ISM manufacturing and services employment indices performed relatively steadily, partially mitigating pessimistic expectations. Prior to the non-farm payroll release, White House officials actively guided market expectations. White House senior trade advisor Peter Navarro stated that reasonable expectations for monthly employment data should be "significantly lowered," arguing that given the current context of deporting illegal immigrants and a shrinking labor force, a monthly job increase of approximately 50,000 could be considered a "stable level," and the six-figure growth during the Biden era should no longer be used as a benchmark. White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett also stated that employment data may be weaker due to a declining labor force, but this does not contradict strong GDP growth and productivity improvements, and the market should not panic excessively. Furthermore, the final revised baseline figure for the 2025 employment data is also worth noting. Previous preliminary data showed a downward revision of nearly one million jobs, which triggered market volatility. With the non-farm payroll data approaching, the market's judgment on the Fed's policy path and the true strength of the job market may face a crucial test.