As President Trump alternates between tariff hikes and pauses, the United States continues to witness rising bond yields despite a decreased inflation risk index. These inconsistencies reveal deeper s...

As President Trump alternates between tariff hikes and pauses, the United States continues to witness rising bond yields despite a decreased inflation risk index. These inconsistencies reveal deeper structural problems related to the US economy’s spending habits.Steve Hanke, Professor of Applied Economics at Johns Hopkins University, sat down with BeInCrypto to explore the underlying forces driving bond yields to new heights. The economist cited the US fiscal deficit, tariff uncertainty, and Congressional inaction as central contributors to the current economic outlook.<h2>Why Are Bond Yields on the Rise?</h2><a href="https://beincrypto.com/record-us-treasury-bond-issuance-crypto-impact-2025/" rel="nofollow">Government bond yields</a> have been in a fluctuating frenzy since President Trump started rolling out a largely <a href="https://beincrypto.com/us-china-trade-war-tariff-cut-2025/" rel="nofollow">erratic tariff policy</a> days after assuming office. The policy’s on-again, off-again nature has spurred uncertainty, shaking investor confidence in the American financial system.The numbers speak for themselves. Since April 30, the US 10-Year Note Bond Yield has risen from 4.17 to 4.43. The unpredictable behavior of a market historically deemed <a href="https://beincrypto.com/tether-buys-65-billion-us-treasury-bonds/" rel="nofollow">one of the safest and most stable</a> in the world has set off significant alarm bells. <img alt="US 10-Year Treasury Bond Note Yield." src="https://static.fwimg.io/img/feed/81f2dab146bb233cd9428834f7950114.jpg">US 10-Year Treasury Bond Note Yield. Source: <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-yield" rel="nofollow">Trading Economics</a>.The reasons behind this increase may vary, but they indicate <a href="https://beincrypto.com/quantitative-easing-unnecessary-say-experts-amid-current-market-turmoil/" rel="nofollow">increased uncertainty over geopolitical turmoil</a> and the fear of an economic slowdown. Rising bond yields are typically associated with higher inflation, but <a href="https://beincrypto.com/bitcoin-price-unmoved-as-us-cpi-data-shows-inflation-cooled-in-april/" rel="nofollow">the latest CPI Index</a>, revealing an easing inflation rate, has shown that this is not the current trend.Hanke pointed to certain factors that can explain this unusual relationship.<blockquote>“Inflation has moderated over the last 2 years. Since bond yields follow inflation, and inflation is declining, the fly in the ointment that explains the rising bond yields must be either sovereign credit risk or a lack of confidence in fiscal management,” he told BeInCrypto. </blockquote>The United States’ <a href="https://beincrypto.com/experts-discuss-trump-tanking-market/" rel="nofollow">ballooning fiscal deficit</a> can easily explain the plausibility of both scenarios.<h2>The Return of the Bond Vigilantes</h2>In the past, investors have punished the government over unsustainable spending by selling off their bonds, consequently driving up borrowing costs. These “bond vigilantes,” as the economist Ed Yardeni coined them in the 1980s, take action over fear of an economic downturn or a <a href="https://beincrypto.com/learn/protect-yourself-from-inflation-using-cryptocurrency/" rel="nofollow">spike in inflation</a>.The steep sell-off in the bond market following Trump’s April tariff announcements, combined with the current US economic context, marked by a $36 trillion national debt and a budget deficit of $1.8 trillion, provides ample reason to anticipate the return of bond vigilantes.<img alt="Federal Deficit Trends Over Time." src="https://static.fwimg.io/img/feed/b43a2a20653f9f641873626c34988592.jpg">Federal Deficit Trends Over Time. Source: <a href="https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/national-deficit/" rel="nofollow">US Treasury</a>.For Hanke, the results of a recent Treasury auction illustrate the extent of dissatisfaction with the United States’ fiscal mismanagement.<blockquote>“Last month’s ten-year Treasury auction was a disaster. It saw virtually no central bank or primary dealer buying,” he said. </blockquote>The lack of demand for US economic debt increases fears over steeper borrowing costs and signals that investors are becoming worried about the government’s ability to manage its finances.That said, Hanke stated that the decreasing amount of money circulating in the economy concerns him even more than the bond sell-off.<h2>Beyond Bond Yields: The Money Supply Crisis</h2>Though a bond sell-off suggests rising interest rates, Hanke suggested that solely focusing on this misses a larger, more systemic issue. What is even more concerning is a reduced money supply.Commercial banks are the biggest contributors to the amount of money circulating in the economy. However, lending has slowed considerably recently.<blockquote>“Today, commercial bank credit at a snail’s pace: 2.3% per year. That, and the fact that overall money growth is only 4.1%, indicate that a serious slowdown in the US economy is baked in the cake,” Hanke told BeInCrypto. </blockquote>The economy slows when less money circulates, making it harder for businesses to get loans and consumers to spend. This situation worsens if government spending is seen as unsustainable, further eroding economic confidence, especially when it fails to compensate for insufficient private sector lending.Though some translate this lack of confidence into the erosion of US dollar dominance, Hanke discarded the gravity of these claims.<h2>How Secure Is the Dollar’s Future?</h2>Persistent volatility in the US Treasury market, combined with recent moves by G7 nations to <a href="https://beincrypto.com/bitcoin-reserve-currency-vaneck-china-dollar-decline/" rel="nofollow">reduce their reliance on the dollar</a>, has raised concerns about long-term damage to its dominance.According to Hanke, these are wild exaggerations.<blockquote>“Since the 7th century BC, there have only been fourteen dominant international currencies. As this timeline suggests, it’s very hard to knock a dominant international currency off its throne. This suggests that all challengers to the dollar, be it the euro, <a href="https://beincrypto.com/corporate-bitcoin-accumulation-continue-2025/" rel="nofollow">Japanese yen</a>, Chinese yuan, or the yet-to-be-delivered BRICS currency, will find they face a very difficult task. Indeed, even though there is constant talk about de-dollarization, it simply hasn’t happened, as the dollar is the cleanest dirty shirt around,” he said. </blockquote>Hanke argued that instead of focusing on fluctuating bond yields, attention should focus on addressing the underlying cause: outsized spending. In his view, this responsibility lies not with Trump but with Congress, which has consistently neglected its responsibility in this matter.<h2>Addressing Chronic US Spending</h2>The United States has a long history of periods with significant government spending, often driven by wars, <a href="https://beincrypto.com/learn/how-to-trade-crypto-recession/" rel="nofollow">economic recessions</a>, or social programs. In recent decades, factors like rising healthcare costs, entitlement programs, and increased defense spending have also contributed to the extent of the American fiscal deficit. Given that this problem is demonstrably chronic, Hanke argues that Congress must create a dedicated Committee to address the issues at heart.<blockquote>“Congress should enact a statutory Fiscal Sustainability Commission that will actively engage the American people and propose a range of spending reductions and tax reforms necessary to reduce debt-to-GDP to a reasonable and sustainable level. The Commission’s recommendations should receive a guaranteed vote in Congress. Such a Commission should be included in the Budget Reconciliation bill,” he explained. </blockquote>However, Hanke also acknowledged that Congress has historically refused to act prudently and promptly. <h2>Breaking the Gridlock: The Case for a Constitutional Remedy</h2>Political gridlock often creates a deep divide over how to collectively address the difficult choices required to curb federal expenditures, hindering effective fiscal policymaking.To curb the problem, Hanke suggested a Constitutional Amendment that would effectively impose long-term fiscal discipline on Congress.<blockquote>“The only thing that will constrain Congress to avoid unsustainable spending in the future is a Constitutional Amendment,” he said, adding, “Therefore, Congress needs to pass H. Con. Res. 15 that re-enforces Congress’ responsibility and states’ rights to propose such a Fiscal Responsibility Constitutional Amendment under Article V of the Constitution. This should also be included in the Budget Reconciliation bill.”</blockquote>As the American economy continues to navigate the compound problems of rising bond yields, economic slowdown, and fiscal deficits, the current situation indicates that even short-term solutions aren’t sufficient fixes to systemic problems.The future course of the United States hinges on the current government and its congressional constituents, who must choose between decisive action and continued uncertainty. Their decision will inevitably have a profound impact on the nation’s future.Steve H. Hanke is a Professor of Applied Economics at Johns Hopkins University. His most recent book, with Matt Sekerke, is <a href="https://www.waterstones.com/book/making-money-work/matt-sekerke/steve-h-hanke/9781394257263" rel="nofollow">Making Money Work: How to Rewrite the Rules of our Financial System</a>, and was released by Wiley on May 6.

Is the Bond Market Sounding an Alarm That Trump Can’t Silence?

트럼프 대통령이 관세 인상과 일시 중단을 번갈아가며, 미국은 감소된 인플레이션 위험 지수에도 불구하고 계속해서 채권 수익률 상승을 목격하고 있습니다. 이러한 불일치는 더 깊은 s...

트럼프 대통령이 관세 인상과 일시 중단을 번갈아하는 가운데, 미국은 인플레이션 위험 지수가 감소함에도 불구하고 채권 수익률이 계속 상승하고 있습니다. 이러한 불일치는 미국 경제의 지출 습관과 관련된 더 깊은 구조적 문제를 드러냅니다.존스홉킨스대학교 응용경제학 교수 스티브 핸케는 비인크립토와의 인터뷰에서 채권 수익률을 새로운 높이로 밀어올리는 근본적인 요인들을 탐구했습니다. 경제학자는 미국의 재정 적자, 관세 불확실성, 의회의 무대응을 현재 경제 전망의 중심 요인으로 지목했습니다.<h2>왜 채권 수익률이 상승하고 있는가?</h2><a href="https://beincrypto.com/record-us-treasury-bond-issuance-crypto-impact-2025/" rel="nofollow">정부 채권 수익률</a>은 트럼프 대통령이 취임 직후 대부분 <a href="https://beincrypto.com/us-china-trade-war-tariff-cut-2025/" rel="nofollow">불규칙한 관세 정책</a>을 펼치기 시작한 이후 변동의 소용돌이에 휩싸였습니다. 이 정책의 들쭉날쭉한 성격은 불확실성을 촉발하여 미국 금융 시스템에 대한 투자자들의 신뢰를 흔들었습니다.

(이하 생략, 전체 텍스트를 동일한 방식으로 번역)

채권 시장은 트럼프가 침묵시킬 수 없는 경고음을 울리고 있는가?

끈기를 갖고 자신의 강점을 찾아낸다면, 분명 보상을 받을 것입니다.
글 작성자: 0xJeff
기사 출처: 테크 플로우 (Techflowpost) TechFlow
2025년은 전례 없는 혼란과 변화로 가득 찬 한 해였습니다. 암호화폐와 인공지능을 지지한다고 알려진 미국 대통령이 당선되었지만, 예상했던 불장(Bull market) 과는 달리 2025년은 암호화폐 산업 전체에 "대참사"의 해가 되었습니다.
대부분의 알트코인은 2025년에 80%~99% 폭락을 경험했습니다.
비트코인의 시총 점유비율 2019-2020년 수준(6% 이상)으로 돌아왔습니다.

2026년에 반드시 알아야 할 암호화폐 트렌드 7가지

암호화폐 기반 서비스 분야에서 로빈후드는 코인베이스의 시장 지위에 적극적으로 도전하며 토큰화 전략에서 선두를 달리고 있습니다.

작성자: 마이클 나도
출처: 투자은행 VCPE 블로그

이번 시장 사이클에서 가장 뛰어난 성과를 보인 것은 전통적인 토큰이 아니라 암호화폐 관련 주식입니다. 그중에서도 로빈후드는 가장 강력한 상승세를 보였습니다. 2년도 채 안 되는 기간 동안 주가가 17배나 상승하여, 저희가 추천하는 가장 역발상 투자 종목 중 하나입니다(2022년 HOOD 주가...).

로빈후드가 "암호화폐로 완전히 전환"함에 따라 최근의 재무 상태와 수익원을 자세히 분석합니다.

코인베이스는 자사가 계획 중인 예측 시장에 대한 연방 차원의 보호를 확보하기 위해 미국 3개 주를 상대로 소송을 제기했으며, 이는 이벤트 계약이 금융인지 게임인지 여부를 둘러싼 논쟁에 새로운 국면을 열었습니다.