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Alan Nguyen
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Crypto Trading Nerd | Swing & Day Trader Founder Nerd Trade Coin: https://t.co/2pI7WRiA6P
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Alan Nguyen
02-02
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Why wait for the 4x-5x range to buy and hold Bitcoin long-term? Recently, Vinh also mentioned that he would only consider buying BTC when it reaches the 40-50 range. My personal view is the same, and below is the price range where I would start buying, based on my own technical analysis. In the long term, I will analyze Bitcoin based on the weekly timeframe. Analytical framework: Weekly Currently , BTC is around 76k, at support but no longer strong. - Upward wave from April 2025 → ATH 126k: very low Volume - Downward wave from October 2025: price drop accompanied by high Volume The upward trend is no longer strong, and large institutions are no longer interested => high probability of a breakdown and reversal. Personal script: - It might recover slightly to around 90k. - Then it broke the $73K support level. - Price returns to the old Volume profile range. And it's highly likely to return to the lowest price range, which is around $47k-$51k. Why is it a good time to start buying long-term in this region, instead of waiting for it to drop further to 3-4x its current price? - This area hasn't been tested before, so it will also be a strong support zone. - The RSI on the weekly chart will fall below 30. - BTC will fall below the Realized Value zone based on the MVRV Z-Score (I will have a separate article explaining this indicator later). In my opinion, this is a good long-term buying zone. I'm willing to buy here because of the high probability of long-term profit. What if BTC drops even further? 👉 DCA adds: no need to try to buy at the absolute Dip . Retailers shouldn't expect to buy at the Dip and sell at the top. Note: This is a personal analysis, for reference only – not investment advice.
BTC
2.18%
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Alan Nguyen
11-19
If you want to trade profitably, don't expect too much! When entering the market, everyone has very beautiful expectations: “Next year this one will be 10x better”, “This month I will probably make a profit of 20-30%”… We need a positive future to confidently put money into the market – right! But if we say now “don’t expect to make a profit”, it sounds contradictory, right? Actually, not at all. The first thing you need to understand is: “MARKET – ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN.” This is the lesson I learned from the book Trading in the Zone. The market is affected by countless factors: supply and demand, crowd psychology, political news... so it cannot be predicted 100% accurately. But it's not entirely random either. Patterns and price structures still repeat, because human psychology never changes (so that technical analysis traders can still make money) Because of its nature, the moment you click on an order, there is a certain percentage that you will lose that order. The problem lies in this: WHEN you expect too much from a certain order, thinking "this time it's for sure", "it must win so I can recover my losses", you will: - Increase Volume too much - Ignore stoploss - Believe in "this time it will feel different" And then reality slaps you in the face: the price goes against you, SL is swept, or worse… no SL is placed, and your account loses to a level you can no longer accept. I have experienced this feeling dozens of times. It hurts, and it makes me change. The only solution to overcome fear – greed – illusion? Reduce expectations to almost zero. Not pessimistic. Just sober. And how I practice it every day: > Always accept that every order can lose → set standard SL, steady Volume . > Only trust clearly backtested methods → data decides, not emotions. > Don't depend on trading for income only → have an outside source of income to keep your mind at ease. “The market doesn't disappoint you – your expectations are just too high.” I still get emotional when trading. Who doesn't? But after understanding the nature and practicing discipline, my mentality became much lighter. Trading and investing made easier. The mind is less dragged, the results are also naturally better. Because I know clearly: I am not always right. But I always understand and accept the risk when the order goes against me.
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