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Murphy
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17年老韭菜；研究链上数据和宏观情绪相结合，构建自己的交易思维。保持谨慎乐观！| 近3亿用户的共同选择就在币安：https://t.co/5pQWuny9gU | #OKX web3入口一个就够 https://t.co/YwY7pIgKzB
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Signal Clone Analysis
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Murphy
Here’s a breakdown of why I’m considering a short-term long here, mainly based on indicator signals: 1. There’s a divergence between the trendline and price action. When price approaches the midline, it’s a decent spot to consider an entry. 2. The momentum indicator is flashing a red oversold signal—this shows a major deviation and a need for mean reversion. 3. My price target estimates for the next 3 levels are: $91,066, $91,755, and $92,398. Also, yesterday I noticed a sudden net inflow of 5,200 BTC into Binance. This is pretty eye-catching, especially heading into the weekend and after three straight weeks of steady outflows—a sharp reversal like this raises eyebrows. So when I spotted the divergence signal around noon yesterday, I set a short order as a pre-emptive move based on the above reasoning. Then, during last night’s 23:00-1:00 window, two consecutive 1H candles saw over 5k BTC dumped on Binance—almost the exact same amount as the earlier inflow, which makes this look even more like a premeditated setup. Once those coins hit the market, volume dropped right back down and price flatlined. All things considered, with BTC’s recent “ping-pong” moves on the hourly, I’m willing to take a short-term play here. Of course, if my thesis gets invalidated, I’ll cut the loss—no bag holding. — Sponsored by @Bitget Bitget VIP: Lower fees, bigger perks twitter.com/Murphychen888/stat...
BTC
2.08%
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Murphy
Traders (Institutions) — Current Market Views & Predictions BTC options open interest (30d SMA) just hit a new all-time high, reaching 563,242 BTC. In the last cycle, the derivatives market was dominated by perpetual and futures contracts, with options playing a much smaller role. This cycle is different. More institutions are holding spot BTC while leveraging the unique features of options — hedging, arbitrage, selling volatility, buying protection, etc. For example, instead of dumping spot to manage risk, they can simply buy puts, dramatically reducing spot sell pressure. (Chart 1) That’s why options premium flows are a solid signal for trader (especially institutional) sentiment and market forecasts now. Charts 2-3 show the net premium flows (buy/sell) for three key strike prices: 85k, 90k, and 92k. (Chart 2) Chart 2: Heavy call buying. Instead of aping into high-leverage OTM (out-of-the-money) calls, traders are stacking ITM (in-the-money) calls — a more conservative bullish play. Big money is still willing to go long, betting BTC will hold above 85k and potentially push even higher. (Chart 3) Chart 3: Massive put selling at 90k — close to spot and the market’s center of gravity (huge OI and volume). This is one of the strongest bullish signals on the board. Traders are betting BTC won’t break below 90k, and even if it does, they're ready to scoop up spot. So, 90k is seen as a major short-term support. (Chart 4) Chart 4: Big flows into both calls and puts — the market is betting on the “next move.” Classic vol trading: direction unclear, but volatility is expected to spike. This is the battleground for support and resistance, the gamma sweet spot. Hence, heavy straddles here. TL;DR: 1. Big players are leveraging 85k ITM calls to go long, while selling puts to earn premium. In short: if there’s a dip, they see 85k as a buy zone, not the start of a deeper dump. 2. Massive put selling at 90k signals strong bets on this zone as short-term support. 3. Huge call + put buying near spot shows traders are gearing up for major volatility ahead. Sponsored by @Bitget Bitget VIP — Lower fees, bigger perks.
BTC
2.08%
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Murphy
12-10
Thread
Binance has announced that it has become the first trading platform to receive full regulatory authorization from the Abu Dhabi Global Markets (ADGM) Financial Services Regulatory Authority. According to the announcement, the ADGM approved three entities to handle trading, clearing/custody, and brokerage/OTC operations, respectively. This marks a new phase for Binance, moving from a "gray area" of regulatory evasion to a "regulated, compliant, and open to mainstream financial institutions." As the official statement says, this is the "end of its headquarters-avoidance journey!" In the current context of increasingly stringent global regulations for crypto assets, this represents a crucial opportunity for Binance to rebuild trust and its legitimate status. It will have a profound impact on its strategic development, attracting investment, and expanding its global business (especially to institutional users). From a user perspective, the regulatory framework requiring the separation of responsibilities between trading, clearing, and custody will enhance user asset security and risk isolation, making the overall structure closer to the standards of mature financial markets. Users may need to adapt to stricter compliance processes, such as more stringent KYC standards or regional restrictions for some products. While this will raise the bar to some extent, in the long run, it will help improve platform stability and enhance investor confidence in Binance. As some market commentators have noted, such regulatory milestones often boost confidence. For example, investors may become more optimistic about BNB's "investment value" due to expectations of compliance, propelling it to become one of the most certain large-cap crypto assets besides BTC. I believe this step is significant and positive for Binance, and even the entire crypto industry, as it moves towards "mainstream finance + compliance + sustainable development." Of course, many variables remain, such as geopolitical risks, policies in different jurisdictions around the world, and the tension between compliance and freedom. However, regardless, this will be a crucial turning point in further fading the label of "crypto = alternative/grey/credit risk" in our industry. Congratulations Binance! twitter.com/Murphychen888/stat...
BNB
2.04%
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Murphy
12-10
From Nov 22 to Nov 23, BTC’s PSIP (Percent Supply in Profit) once dipped below the critical 65% “boom-bust line”—a pretty dangerous signal. Even after the May 19, 2021 crash, BTC’s PSIP never broke below that threshold during the sharp drop. It wasn’t until April 2022, when PSIP finally fell below the line, that BTC truly entered a deep bear phase. That’s why in our Nov 20 post, we mentioned again the potential for a rebound once market sentiment gets squeezed to extremes. Right now, PSIP has temporarily bounced back to 67.6%, but it’s still stuck in that tight 65%-70% “coin flip” zone. A move up could restore some confidence, but a dip down could easily spark panic. (Figure 1) Here’s another interesting detail to share with you guys: Last time, some sharp-eyed followers noticed that whenever PSIP dropped below 50%, it marked a major bear market bottom (41% in Dec 2018, 47% in Dec 2022). Some of you asked if I could estimate what BTC price would trigger PSIP < 50% in this cycle. As I explained in the quote, this is a dynamic metric—it all depends on how coins change hands as price moves. But if we assume that low-price holders don’t sell, then BTC would need to drop to $59,000 to push PSIP below 50%. But now, that price isn’t $59,000—it’s $62,000! In other words, as coins keep switching hands, if you use PSIP=50% as your bear market bottom range, the future bottom will be at least $62,000 and above. That means any BTC below $62,000 is extremely high value and high conviction (you’ll see plenty of English-speaking analysts pointing this out). For me, this is just a rough expectation range. I’m not betting that we’ll definitely hit it in 2026, but I’ll factor it into my trading plan as a scenario to prepare for. No matter where the market winds blow or what the crowd says, all I’ll do is wait patiently and stick to my strategy. ---------------------------------------------- Sponsored by @Bitget | Bitget VIP: lower fees, bigger perks twitter.com/Murphychen888/stat...
BTC
2.08%
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Murphy
12-09
Only 2.936 million BTC left on exchanges! This marks a new low for the current cycle, signaling that more BTC are being moved to cold storage rather than being deposited on exchanges to sell. The last time exchange balances dropped this low was back on December 17, 2022, after the FTX meltdown, when trust in CEXs collapsed and we saw a wave of withdrawals. (Figure 1) What really impacts short-term price action is Binance’s BTC balance. Since the start of 2024, there have been 4 sharp upticks, each lining up with periods of BTC price weakness. (Figure 2) Binance’s BTC balance is closely tied to sell pressure on the market. Whenever the number goes up, it usually puts pressure on the price in the short term. Lately, though, balances have been dropping, which sets up the conditions for a rebound. (Figure 3) What’s interesting is that whales (holding $1M and $10M+) are moving in sync—mainly withdrawing BTC to self-custody, while retail (under $100K) is actually depositing onto exchanges. This lines up with recent on-chain data showing whales are accumulating. (Figure 4) If you compare this to previous cycles, it’s similar to July-August 2021, when whales were all withdrawing. In Jan-Mar 2022, whale behavior was split: $1M+ wallets were withdrawing, but $10M+ wallets were depositing. With both on-chain and exchange sell pressure dropping, and demand decline slowing down, the stage is set for a further rebound. Personally, I think this bounce off $80K isn’t done yet. Whether the rally can keep going will depend on investor sentiment and risk appetite going forward.
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Murphy
12-08
Saw quite a few people asking, “Where’s the Investor Confidence Index?” Since the algorithm for this indicator is heavily smoothed, it moves pretty slowly—it’s a macro trend indicator, so there’s really no need to update it too often. But since everyone’s curious, here’s the latest update. Right now, the index is still in the red zone below the zero line, and this time it’s even lower than the last two cycles. That means this BTC drop has hit market confidence harder than any other dip this cycle. More investors are no longer seeing this as just a mid-bull pullback, but as the start of a new bear phase. (See Chart 1) Personally, regardless of whether that’s true or not, the most “no-brainer” strategy for regular investors is just DCA—something like the AHR999 approach. For example, when the first red signal appeared, BTC was at $105,000. If you bought your first batch then and kept buying every $10k drop, your average entry would be around $95,000. If you laddered in with a positive pyramid strategy, your cost basis could be as low as $90,000. Even if you don’t use any other hedging (like long vol through options), your BTC spot account drawdown would be pretty limited—and you’d likely outperform 90% of the market. Just keep DCA’ing until the index climbs back above zero, and your P&L curve won’t look bad at all. The hard part is strict risk management and sticking to your plan. Sounds easy, but most people can’t do it. Because the Confidence Index can stay away from zero for a long time—it took 2.5 months in 2024, and this time might last even longer (we’re only one month in so far). Now we’re seeing a slight upturn in the index, but that doesn’t mean BTC has bottomed yet. It just means things are heading in a better direction. Still, always be ready for volatility, manage your risk, and keep enough ammo so you don’t get forced out too early. ---------------------------------------------- Post sponsored by @Bitget｜ Bitget VIP: lower fees, bigger perks twitter.com/Murphychen888/stat...
BTC
2.08%
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