Murphy

Murphy

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17年老韭菜；研究链上数据和宏观情绪相结合，构建自己的交易思维。保持谨慎乐观！| 近3亿用户的共同选择就在币安：https://t.co/5pQWuny9gU | #OKX web3入口一个就够 https://t.co/YwY7pIgKzB

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Signal Clone Analysis

I used to be confused about how exactly Long-Term Holders (LTH) and Short-Term Holders (STH) are defined. If you misunderstand the data logic, your analysis can end up biased or even completely wrong. To clarify this, I had in-depth discussions with the Glassnode dev team about the algorithms and definitions for LTH and STH. As far as I know, there’s still no comprehensive analysis on this topic in the Chinese crypto community. Recently, I saw @PhyrexNi and @riyuexiaochu discussing this, so here’s my attempt to break it down: Step 1: To determine the precise threshold for separating STH and LTH based on coin age, Glassnode analyzed the slope of the UTXO spend probability curve across different time frames. Turns out, the coin age at which the sample’s slope peaks is consistently 155 days. Basically, after holding for at least 155 days, the probability of BTC moving again is at its lowest. So, 155 days is the baseline for distinguishing LTH from STH. Step 2: Building on that, Glassnode engineers also factor in the average holding time for each on-chain entity since their purchase date. If that average exceeds 155 days, the entity is considered a long-term holder. For example, if my wallet has 10 BTC held for 300 days and I just bought 5 BTC held for 1 day, the average holding time is (10*300 + 5*1) ÷ 15 = 200 days. Since that’s above 155 days, my newly bought 5 BTC are classified as LTH. Step 3: To refine the hard threshold and turn it into a smooth weighting curve, Glassnode uses a logistic function centered at 155 days with a transition width of 10 days. This keeps the curve smooth, avoiding sudden spikes or drops. Roughly, after holding for about 177 days, 90% of BTC is counted in LTH supply. So, in summary, an increase in LTH net holdings signals two things: 🚩 1. Old LTHs are accumulating, as long as the wallet’s average BTC holding time is above 155 days; 🚩 2. STHs are holding their BTC, and after roughly 177 days, those coins become new LTHs; But an increase in LTH net holdings doesn’t mean LTHs aren’t selling. Take Figure 4 as an example: Since July 7, 2025, LTHs have spent a total of 5.747 million BTC, but their net holdings only dropped by 44,000 BTC. This shows that while LTHs are spending, a large number of STHs are holding and transitioning into LTHs, offsetting the outflow. Since February 14, 2026, LTH net holdings have resumed their upward trend, meaning the combined amount from old LTH accumulation + STHs holding and becoming new LTHs is now greater than LTH expenditure. For the market, this means supply-side pressure is easing. Once demand starts to pick up as the macro environment improves, we’ll gradually climb out of the bear market swamp. twitter.com/Murphychen888/stat...

GummyBear @0xGummyBear mentioned the "Coinbase Premium Index"—a metric I also keep a close eye on. Together with the Binance USDC/USDT rate and the RMMPC indicator on Glassnode, these three form the core USD buying power metrics. Plus, the first two are totally free to track. 1. Negative Coinbase Premium means US investor buying appetite is cooling off. 2. Binance USDC/USDT rate > 1 signals more USDT is being swapped for USDC—funds are looking to exit. 3. On RMMPC, when the blue line dips below the red, it shows US trading hours are losing their influence on BTC price action. If all three line up, BTC’s upward momentum is likely tapped out. Right now, we’re seeing signs of #1 and #2, but #3 hasn’t shown up yet. twitter.com/Murphychen888/stat...

I know that too many words can overwhelm some people's brain cells. If you genuinely struggle with text and reading comprehension, why not ask Grok? I'm giving you a verifiable decision-making framework and its logical derivation process. What you're hoping for is a simple bullish/bearish prediction and entry/exit points. "Get on board now!" "Last chance to escape!"... Such blunt and direct statements may grab attention, but that's not my style. It's the AI era now. Even if you need to be fed at the beginning, shouldn't you at least be able to digest the information yourself in the end?

STH-RP just saw a sharp downward move, dropping $1,000 in only two days (4/25-4/27), now sitting around $79,000. The 7-day rate of change is -2%, while for a long time it hovered near -0.5% (see Chart 1). So, why did STH-RP suddenly accelerate to the downside? And what are the implications? If the 7-day rate of change was 0%, STH-RP would be a flat line. The higher the rate, the steeper the curve. This move signals a massive amount of short-term coins suddenly “on the move”—and they’re moving at a loss. Chart 2 confirms this: After BTC broke above $76,000, short-term holders started dumping at a loss at an accelerated pace, with a 7-day average of 77,000 BTC per day. Highs are being swapped for lows. In the short term, this creates sell pressure, but in the long run, it actually clears resistance for the next leg up. As we said yesterday, when price approaches STH-RP, lots of coins become highly sensitive to this level—making it a key psychological zone. When STH-RP accelerates downward, it forces “price action” to make a choice: either break out or pull back. Yesterday, we saw a pullback first. But in the end, the result is always the same: once there’s nowhere left to fall, price breaks out in one shot. After that, the trend direction becomes clear. twitter.com/Murphychen888/stat...

Yes, I agree with that view. However, there's a small issue: If a signal appears that could signal a mini-bull run, such as a breakout above STH-RP, should we jump in? This includes deciding where to enter, how much to invest, and where to set the stop-loss. All of this needs to be planned in advance. Another example is if the breakout above STH-RP fails and BTC retraces again, where should we enter? If you're dollar-cost averaging, then continue, no need to worry about anything else. If you're a trend trader, then you need to weigh the pros and cons carefully. But I don't have a standard answer to this, as everyone's trading style, risk tolerance, and capital size are different, so I can't really give investment advice. If the certainty is high, I think I would try to catch it with a portion of my capital.

Thanks to M's analysis, my take is either 60k is the bottom but maybe not enough time-wise so it needs some grinding, or there's one last wiggle left—either way, opportunities start kicking in from the second half of the year 😄😄

I originally intended to state my personal understanding and opinions in under 200 words. I accidentally wrote a long post again, I'm truly sorry. I just can't shake this rambling habit. Thank you to everyone who patiently read to the end! To avoid misunderstandings, let me briefly summarize again: 1. Logically speaking, this time should be "the same" (i.e., a higher probability of encountering resistance at the double cost line). The reason is: the bottom accumulation structure appears thin, the foundation is weak, which is detrimental to future development. 2. However, this time could also be "different," this is my subjective feeling. The biggest difference is that "the lower limit may be rising." Many people believe that in every bear market, BTC will fall below RP and LTH-RP. But as I said, this round has repeatedly found effective support at <10y_RP, a phenomenon never seen in the past 10 years. Therefore, we have reason to suspect that the "atypical characteristics" of this bear market are emerging. If less than 10y_RP can completely absorb the selling pressure, then why is it necessary to seek a bottom consensus at RP ($54,000) or LTH-RP ($46,000)? I follow over 100 top analysts and traders in the English-speaking community, and recently, their opinions have diverged significantly: A believes the true bear market bottom will be even lower (in Q3 or Q4); B believes $60,000 is the bottom (and could recover over $100,000 this year). In my opinion, let's wait for the market to provide the answer: if BTC can break through the dual resistance of STH-RP and TMMP, then B is highly probable. Conversely, A is more likely, or A and B are about equal. twitter.com/Murphychen888/stat...

Is this time really “different”, or is it “just the same” again? (Part 2) — In the previous post, I explained the roles of STH-RP and TMMP, and why they’ve become the strongest resistance levels. In this thread, I’ll continue sharing my personal understanding and perspective. Logically, this time should be “just the same”. With BTC facing dual cost-based resistance, it shouldn’t break through easily in one go. Instead, it should retrace, solidify the underlying chip structure, and let the market reconfirm the bottom consensus. As you can see in Chart 1, there’s no obvious demand heat in the $60-70k range—the chip structure looks pretty thin here. Compare this to the dense accumulation zone formed in Feb 2022, and you’ll see the difference. But, “will this time actually be different?”—this question has been on my mind lately. To be honest, I can sense something “unusual” quietly unfolding right in front of us. Take <10y_RP (purple line in Chart 2) for example. This is the Realized Price calculated after excluding chips held for over 10 years (never moved), giving a more realistic market level. In the past 13 years, there hasn’t been a single bear market where BTC didn’t break below <10y_RP. Yet this time, BTC simply refuses to drop beneath it. During the panic from Feb-Apr this year, BTC repeatedly tested <10y_RP but never broke it. That’s no coincidence—it proves the market hit an extreme, and all selling pressure was fully absorbed. Combine this with the “investor confidence index in the trend”—the pattern almost perfectly mirrors the last cycle, but both the volatility and duration are noticeably smaller this time (see Chart 3). Based on all this, I personally believe we have reasons to suspect: the “atypical characteristics” of this bear market are starting to emerge. If BTC really manages to break through both STH-RP and TMMP resistance in one shot, it’ll be the most unique bear market in BTC’s 13-year history. Even if it doesn’t flip instantly, it could still retest and fall below STH-RP later. But once we see that first breakout, I’ll consider the market to have exited “deep bear”—entering a whole new stage: the Bear-Bull Transition. Just like Apr 2019 to Jul 2020, and Jan to Sep 2023—periods when the market digested divergence and shifted from bear to bull sentiment (see Chart 4). During these times, we saw “one last dip” and even the possibility of a “mini bull run”. The market is always right, regardless of our personal opinions. Past experience is just that—past. Only real action can test the truth. Right now, there are two camps: A thinks the true bear bottom is lower; B believes $60,000 is the bottom. Which side is more likely? I don’t think it’s worth arguing. When the market tells its story in its own unique way, our job is to read it—and “cost basis” and “price action” are its most honest language. twitter.com/Murphychen888/stat...

Is this time "different," or is it "the same"? The True Market Average Price (TMMP) is a cost mean reversion model that includes all active on-chain tokens; such as ETF trading, OTC transactions, exchange transfers, etc., but excludes tokens held by miners, long-term dormant tokens, or lost tokens. The Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH-RP) is the average on-chain turnover cost of all short-term tokens. Many analysts consider it the dividing line between bull and bear markets. Although STH-RP and TMMP measure different dimensions, both are sensitive to a large amount of tokens. As important psychological barriers, they often represent the strongest resistance levels during price rebounds. If STH-RP and TMMP overlap, the resistance will inevitably double. After all, in a bear market, allowing a large number of tokens to recover from losses will generate significant selling pressure. Therefore, over the past 13 years, whenever the red and green lines intersect, BTC has made the same choice—to continue its downward trend. Currently, TMMP = $78,000; STH-RP = $80,000; the BTC price is approaching this level, and the red and green lines are about to converge. So, is this time "different"? Or is this time "the same"? We'll wait and see! ------------------------------------ I think you'll often encounter authors ending in this way. Because an open-ended conclusion is the least likely form of expression. If you don't want to be criticized, misunderstood, or argued with, ending here is the wisest approach. However, fans will definitely be very unhappy; a long essay ending without a conclusion or viewpoint is just nonsense! So, if you're sure you want to consider my personal subjective opinion and have the patience to listen to me continue, then let's continue... (The sequel will be updated this afternoon) twitter.com/Murphychen888/stat...

Just now, an older gentleman came up to me and asked, "Young man, do you trade Bitcoin?" I was taken aback, then instantly understood: "Commemorative coins? Never heard of them." "Oh~~ I saw your screen is from Binance, I thought you were..." "I bought it on Xianyu (a second-hand marketplace app), cheap." He looked at it suspiciously and walked away... I was astonished. Who is this gentleman, trading crypto with his retirement savings? 😂😂😂

Combining three sets of data (Options Gamma Exposure, Options Open Interest by Strike Price, and Options ATM Implied Volatility), here’s the impact on BTC from the options perspective: $80,000 is currently the first major resistance for BTC. This level features high Call OI, positive Gamma, and low IV all at once. When price pushes upward, market makers’ dynamic hedging can easily create selling pressure; plus, the lower the IV, the more sensitive market makers become to rebalancing their hedges. That’s why this “wall” (OI of 7,200 BTC + significant positive Gamma) makes $80K a tough nut to crack in May. But it’s not an absolute ceiling! If we break out and approach $82,000, there’s even larger negative Gamma here (OI of 4,644 BTC), so the market could quickly flip from being suppressed to entering a “volatility amplification” mode. twitter.com/Murphychen888/stat...

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