Murphy

Murphy

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17年老韭菜；研究链上数据和宏观情绪相结合，构建自己的交易思维。保持谨慎乐观！| 近3亿用户的共同选择就在币安：https://t.co/5pQWuny9gU | #OKX web3入口一个就够 https://t.co/YwY7pIgKzB

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Signal Clone Analysis

Who is the capital flowing into the market for? Disagreements and consensus among Binance's top traders In the previous issue, we discussed the rapid growth in the balances of major stablecoins on Binance during BTC's correction. Even excluding the incremental funds from high-interest investment activities, there was still a significant net inflow, reflecting potential market demand. If it's not for investment purposes, then who is this influx of funds for? 🚩 Let's first look at the BTC data: twitter.com/Murphychen888/stat...

After repeated discussions and detailed explanations of the differences and roles of CBD and URPD in terms of chip structure, support range, and time flow, Glassnode engineers have finally redeveloped and launched ETH's URPD data! From now on, you can now intuitively analyze ETH's chip price distribution and support range changes, just like analyzing BTC. Special thanks to @Glassnode

The average cost basis for short-term holders (<1 month & <3 months) sits at $112,700—this is the first major resistance level for a rebound and we’re almost there (based on closing price). Once we break through, the next target is $115,000, which marks the lower edge of BTC’s uptrend channel since April and the extreme deviation zone for MVRV. twitter.com/Murphychen888/stat...

Can’t believe the indicator I get asked about the most is actually the “Three Lines Converge” — pure voodoo stuff. On September 5th at 20:30, the August unemployment rate and non-farm payroll data drop. This is another key macro event that could heavily impact the Fed’s September rate cut decision and the market’s expectations for future cuts. I checked out the analysis from some macro experts. The gist is: if employment data is super strong, rate cut expectations drop—bearish. If the data is really weak, it sparks recession or stagflation fears—still bearish. Maybe I’m missing something, but honestly, it feels like no matter what the numbers say, the only thing that matters is how the market interprets them. What will the market do in that moment? As someone who’s a macro noob, all I can say is: it’s a total mystery. There’s a saying: “Whoever tied the bell on the tiger must untie it.” Maybe the answer to this mystery is hidden in the voodoo itself? So, once again, I had to consult the stars... (Pic 1) Let’s recap the last time I looked at the “Three Lines Converge”: between Aug 22 and Sep 7, the blue and green lines were out of sync. Based on past experience, I thought the red line would probably take the middle path, and the odds of it following the green line down were low. Didn’t expect BTC to rebound for just one day after Aug 22, and then head straight for the “worst-case scenario”—as predicted: before Sep 7, the red line kept tracking down with the green line... bottoming out at MVRV = 1.93, which maps to a BTC price of $101,000. Sure, we’re not at $101,000 yet, but that’s not really the point. What matters is, the voodoo indicator now says that in a few days, the blue and green lines will start moving up together. If the red line syncs up too, then the inflection point should land right around 9/7~9/9. After the jobs data comes out on 9/5, US stocks are closed for the weekend on 9/6~9/7. The real market reaction to the data will show up Monday, meaning the night of 9/8 into the early hours of 9/9. That lines up exactly with the voodoo indicator. Coincidence or fate? Also, this synchronized uptrend for the blue and green lines should hold until around 9/29, maybe as late as 10/30, staying above the yellow dashed line (MVRV: 2.42). In plain English: during this period, both blue and green lines will be higher than the current red line. Theoretically, the red line could keep grinding upwards until 10/30. If the red line goes against the trend (down), that’ll be only the second time the voodoo indicator has failed since March. How will it end? Guess we’ll have to wait and see. ------------------------------------------------- This thread exists thanks to everyone constantly bugging me for an update. Honestly, I was just going to post one line: The voodoo says a big move is coming... But I figured that would raise even more questions, so here I am rambling again. Sorry to those who just want the TL;DR. Didn’t mean to ruin your reading experience! One last reminder: don’t ever use voodoo as your only signal. It really is mysterious as hell. 👇 👇 ‼️ My posts are for learning and sharing only, NOT investment advice ‼️ ------------------------------------------------- Sponsored by #Bitget ｜ @Bitget_zh twitter.com/Murphychen888/stat...

What a move! Following a strategic investment from MomentumDEX, DeAgentAI has secured another strategic investment from Valkyrie Fund, a renowned Silicon Valley venture capital firm, bringing its total funding to over US$10 million. Valkyrie Fund is a Silicon Valley-based early-stage investment fund focused on cutting-edge technologies such as blockchain and AI infrastructure. Previous investments include Chemix, Inc. (EV battery development), Feon Energy (high-performance battery material innovation), exaBITS (decentralized AI infrastructure), and other tech startups. This demonstrates the company's expertise in early-stage investments in energy technology and AI infrastructure. This latest funding round marks DeAgentAI's recognition from both the Web3 ecosystem and mainstream Silicon Valley tech investment circles. It also provides more funding and resources for AI infrastructure product development and market expansion, further strengthening its long-term focus on AI infrastructure within the Sui ecosystem.

HUGE NEWS! 🚀 We're thrilled to announce a strategic investment from Silicon Valley powerhouse, Valkyrie Fund [https://valkyriefund.xyz] This partnership is key to tackling one of AI's biggest challenges: optimizing compute cost and efficiency. Valkyrie's expertise will

Previously, we discussed how BTC has been hovering around the STH-RP level for 7 days since the 26th. This is due to a combination of factors: market liquidity, the tug-of-war between buyers and sellers, and shifting macro sentiment. But BTC obviously can’t stick around this sensitive level forever. Historically, when this kind of consolidation happens, it usually resolves within 10-20 days (see Chart 1). Either we’ll see a strong rebound—maybe even a full reversal—or we’ll enter a prolonged period of sideways/downward action or an accelerated correction. (Chart 1) When emotions get compressed to the extreme, we often see some small-scale rebounds during this phase. The key to watch is whether BTC can break through the nearest resistance levels. Right now, the average cost basis for short-term holders (<1 month and <3 months) has converged (see Chart 2), creating a double resistance zone at $112,700. (Chart 2) Because short-term investors are much more easily swayed by market sentiment than long-term holders, once their positions go from “paper loss” back to “break-even,” the likelihood of them selling increases. That’s why $112,700–$113,400 is the most critical resistance on the rebound path. If BTC fails to break through, we’ll likely see another test of the STH-RP support. On the other hand, if we see a smooth breakout, it means these trapped coins still have confidence in the future and aren’t rushing to sell. That would give us a much more optimistic outlook. 👇 👇 ‼️ This is just my personal sharing for educational purposes and does NOT constitute investment advice! ‼️ ------------------------------------------------- This post is sponsored by #Bitget | @Bitget_zh twitter.com/Murphychen888/stat...

Counting from August 29th, BTC has been hovering around the STH-RP "short-term holder realized price" line for 7 days now. On the surface, it looks like the whales are deliberately pinning the price around this cost basis, waiting for us to make our move. But in reality, it’s the tug-of-war between bulls and bears at this crucial level that’s driving the stalemate. You can see this playing out in the "Investor Confidence Trend Index" as well: 🚩 Green = bullish vibes; short-term holders are taking profits, feeling optimistic about selling. 🚩 Yellow = indecision; this signals market hesitation, usually popping up during consolidation or right before a new trend kicks in. 🚩 Red = bearish sentiment; short-term holders are capitulating at a loss, showing clear negative sentiment. So, when the indicator shifts from green to yellow, it means confidence is starting to shake. This is often when the market’s “sensitive nerves” are stretched to the limit—go any further and we’re in the red, i.e., peak pessimism. And climbing back from red to green is never a quick fix. That’s why we treat this “confidence index” as a major trend signal. Right now, BTC’s been stuck at STH-RP for 7 days, pushing the confidence index into the yellow zone. When we first transition from green to yellow, there’s usually a short-term bounce. But if it goes straight into the red, it signals a serious loss of confidence and a shift in the macro trend—meaning the market needs either time or a bigger move to recover. 👇 👇 ‼️ Just sharing my thoughts for educational purposes, not financial advice! ‼️ Sponsored by #Bitget ｜ @Bitget_zh twitter.com/Murphychen888/stat...

Whale Activity in BTC Surges Sharply We analyzed on-chain transactions over $10M to gauge the involvement of big players. Historically, these large transfers account for about 35% of total on-chain settlement volume. However, during periods of high market volatility, the share of big money spikes significantly. For example, when BTC first broke $70K in March 2024, this metric soared to 48.9%. In August 2024, when BTC retraced to $60K, the ratio climbed back up to 46.8%. On August 5, 2025, the proportion dropped to 38%. But as BTC continued to correct, this figure shot up to 54% by August 31—marking a local high and far exceeding the previous peaks seen during the lows in August 2024 and March 2025. Typically, increased whale activity at price tops signals profit-taking. Yet this time, the surge is happening as prices drop, which is worth noting. Coupled with recent data showing whales holding 100–1,000 BTC are steadily accumulating, I personally lean toward the view that big players are buying the dip and accumulating positions. Of course, the market is always a battle between buyers and sellers. But no matter the direction, increased whale participation brings more liquidity, helping the market mature and grow healthier. 👇 👇 ‼️ This is for educational sharing only and NOT investment advice ‼️ Sponsored by #Bitget ｜ @Bitget_zh twitter.com/Murphychen888/stat...

Fear vs. Conviction: Skew Rises, Yet Whales Are Buying the Dip The 25-Delta options implied volatility skew is a key indicator of how worried the market is about downside risk vs. upside opportunity. It measures the difference between implied volatility on out-of-the-money Puts and Calls. Right now, both the 1-month and 3-month skew curves keep climbing, showing that demand for short-term downside protection is on the rise. In other words, options traders are still leaning bearish on BTC in the near term (see Chart 1). (Chart 1) Looking at order books, we see the same story. Spot CVDs on Binance and Coinbase are running below their 90-day medians—a clear step down from the strong buying pressure we saw in October 2024 and March 2025 (see Chart 2). This means it’s not just the derivatives market—spot buyers are showing less confidence at these price levels too. (Chart 2) This is the reality right now: the weekly candle is about to confirm a high-level death cross, and RSI bearish divergence is casting a shadow over most investors’ minds. But markets are always two-sided—and there’s a bullish twist: whales holding 100-1K BTC are quietly accumulating! (Chart 3) We’ve broken down on-chain whale holdings, and long-term trends show that the 100-1K BTC cohort is the main buying force this cycle. These whales usually absorb coins from larger OGs offloading bags and panic sellers among retail. Behaviorally, this group is often the first to step in on pullbacks—not always catching the exact bottom, but rarely making big mistakes over time. At the very least, it suggests some whales see decent risk/reward at these levels and are willing to start scaling in. 👇 👇 ‼️ For learning and discussion only, not financial advice! ‼️ ------------------------------------------------- Sponsored by #Bitget | @Bitget_zh twitter.com/Murphychen888/stat...

Panic set in as BTC dropped below the STH-RP ($108,000) level. On-chain data shows realized losses (adjusted for entity) hit $107M (see Chart 1). Although this isn’t as high as the $126M from 8/26, it’s still significantly above the levels of 8/25, 8/27, and 8/28. So, it’s too early to say sentiment has started to recover. (Chart 1) Looking at realized losses transferred to exchanges, there was a clear spike around 5am Beijing time on 8/30 (see Chart 2), right as BTC broke below the $108,000 STH-RP level — the average cost basis for short-term holders. This triggered some psychological panic among investors. (Chart 2) At the same time, among the four major exchanges — Binance, OKX, Bybit, and Coinbase — only Coinbase saw a huge BTC inflow: 7,244 BTC were deposited within just one hour between 5-6am (see Chart 3). (Chart 3) We’ve analyzed this before: when STH-RP is breached, short-term sentiment quickly shifts from anxiety to outright panic. The data now clearly reflects this, and with the weekend approaching (when liquidity is thin), we could see even bigger swings. Of course, for those bullish on BTC’s long-term trend, the dip hasn’t stopped them from accumulating. (Chart 4) We noticed Kraken’s BTC balance dropped by 41,512 BTC between 8/27-8/29. Previous on-chain tracking shows Kraken addresses are closely linked to treasury firms, traditional institutions, and OTC desks. So, it’s likely this was a large-scale withdrawal for OTC settlement by market makers. There’s always a game being played in the market: some panic, some get greedy; some capitulate, others keep stacking. For retail, my only advice is: don’t overthink it. Manage your spot positions wisely, plan your trades ahead, and when the market hits peak fear — that’s when real opportunities show up. 👇 👇 ‼️ Sharing for educational purposes only. Not investment advice. ‼️ ------------------------------------------------- Sponsored by #Bitget ｜ @Bitget_zh twitter.com/Murphychen888/stat...

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