Murphy

Murphy

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17年入币圈，吃过"猪肉"也见过"猪跑"。这里有凡人逆袭跨越阶层的黄金机遇，但同样需遵循财富的边际是认知的客观定律；努力将链上数据分析和宏观情绪研究相结合，构建适合自己的交易思维。始终保持积极、乐观、谨慎！

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Why is <BTC> at $81,000 so resilient?! The tough tariff policy exceeded everyone's expectations, with VIX surging and S&P and Nasdaq plummeting... According to past patterns, <BTC> should have already fallen into the $70,000 range, or even the $60,000 range would not be surprising. However, the fact is that <BTC> has repeatedly found effective support at over $81,000! Many people are puzzled by this, believing that there is no reason for such strong support here and finding it hard to understand..... twitter.com/Murphychen888/stat...

Long-term holders become the key factor in suppressing BTC's reversal Typically during bull market pullbacks, BTC's price repeatedly challenges the STH-RPC - short-term holders' average turnover cost, currently at $93,000; since February this year, BTC has not seen a substantial rebound. It has either been a low-volatility sideways movement (such as 2/5-2/23) or rebounds falling short of expectations (such as 3/13-3/25). (Figure 1) twitter.com/Murphychen888/stat...

This cycle has a total of 3 obvious trend markets. The first segment is from October 2023 to January 2024 (BTC from $27,000 to $47,000); the second segment is from January 2024 to March 2024 (BTC from $40,000 to $73,000); the third segment is from October 2024 to January 2025 (BTC from $60,000 to $108,000). Each of these segments can be perfectly measured by the "MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Indicator" to determine the range of changes in momentum.

The culprits behind the amplified BTC volatility — leveraged liquidations and liquidity depletion

The important basis for judging the transition of the bull market cycle —— The timestamp of on-chain data In the on-chain data analysis of BTC, there are 2 core concepts, namely "timestamp" and "price stamp". Due to the transparency of the blockchain, we are able to observe each on-chain transaction and identify two key details: 1. The time when the chip movement occurs: timestamp; 2. The price at the time of the transaction: price stamp.

The Escape to the Top 2025 - The Actual Application of "On-Chain Data" (7) 🔹 Preface The comment section of yesterday's tweet exploded, and I didn't expect so many friends to leave messages for me. It is really rare to find so many people in this frenetic circle who are willing to calm down and rationally analyze the research. <x.com/i/web/status/18648762112...> <twitter.com/Murphychen888/stat...> HT

Is it time for us to take action? Recently, I may reduce the frequency of tweets, not because I am lazy, but because all important data and indicators show that we have entered a critical moment. To be precise, it should be an important "time period" (a period of time, not a certain point in time). … x.com/i/web/status/18584850788... twitter.com/Murphychen888/stat...

ETH on-chain data explained, here's what you've been waiting for! (Twitter threads) 🚩Why has ETH performed so poorly this round? 🚩Does ETH still have hope? 🚩Under what circumstances can ETH make up for the losses?

Important price support In traders’ K-line techniques, support and resistance levels are often mentioned; these price positions are often analyzed through technical theories such as volume and price, moving averages, and line drawing. In the analysis system of on-chain data, there is also a concept similar to "price support". The logic behind this "support" is a true reflection of factors such as investor behavior consistency, profit and loss balance, psychological emotions, and supply and demand relationships. … x.com/i/web/status/18496751142...

Thank you to President Yu @UwebDrYu for the invitation, and to the Uweb team @Uweb_web3 for their meticulous and thoughtful arrangements, which allowed me to focus on preparing the course materials and successfully complete the teaching content. This trip to Hong Kong was very rewarding, as I was able to meet a group of accomplished entrepreneurs and industry KOLs. It also allowed me to once again feel that the higher the level of a person, the more humble and low-key they are, and the more they are willing to accommodate others. I am deeply grateful and honored!! 🙏🙏🙏

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